Anticipating the Implications of a New All-Time High

SP500 Posts a New All Time High, After a Prior Bear Market (Decline of at Least -20%)

If current prices remain steady, the S&P 500 is on track to surpass its previous high from January 3, 2022, and establish a new all-time record. Looking back in history, there have been 11 similar instances of new all-time highs following bear markets, defined by prior declines of at least -20%. The table below provides a comprehensive overview of the expected return profiles associated with this study. It's important to note that while continued upward momentum is typically observed, returns in the 1-week to 2-month range can be mixed. In the case of 2007, it essentially marked a 'double top,' but in the other 10 instances, strong returns were witnessed from 5 months up to 1 year forward.