Peak Short-term U.S. Yields
U.S. 12-month (1-year) Yields Cross Below Their 12-month Moving Average.
Shorter-term United States Treasury yields have just closed below their 1-year moving average. In particular, U.S. 12-month yields (1-year) have just crossed below this average after being consistently above it for more than a year (252 trading days).
Historical patterns suggest that when such signals have occurred in the past, dating as far back as the early 1960s, they have often indicated the establishment of a peak in yields. Subsequent returns following these signals have typically averaged further declines ranging from -143 basis points to -93 basis points, depending on the tenure - see table below.