The "Magnetic" Attraction of Prior All Time Highs

SPX is Less than 3.50% Shy of its 1/3/2022 High, After Having Been in a Bear Market

The SPX is nearing its 1/3/22 high. Historically, when the S&P 500 approaches an all-time high after a bear market decline of at least -20%, there's a strong 90.90% chance of establishing a new high within six months.

Reviewing the data:

• Within one month, the SPX reached a new high in only one of eleven instances (1982).

• Extending to two to three months, eight of eleven times saw new highs with relatively limited drawdowns, except in 1971 and 1980.

• In 1980, a -15.53% drop occurred but eventually led to a new high.

• 1971 was the only exception where a new high wasn't achieved within six months.

This history suggests the SPX's potential to rebound and set new all-time highs after significant bear market declines, providing insights into volatility and timing.