U.S. 5-year Yields Fall -50 Basis Points From the High

Swings Down of -50 Basis Points After Previous Swings Up of More Than +100 Basis Points

Yesterday's significant drop in U.S. 5-year treasury yields, marking a decrease of -22 basis points, increased the downward trend initiated since the high point recorded on October 19, 2023, now totaling over -50 basis points. Historical data reveals a noteworthy statistical propensity for rates to sustain their descent. A comprehensive analysis presented in the table below illuminates this pattern, showcasing a tendency for 6-months forward projections of both 5-year and 10-year yields to experience additional declines, averaging -29 and -20 basis points, respectively.