When the S&P 500 'Regains' its Footing Above the 1-year Moving Average

Closes Back Above a Rising 1-year MA, After Brief Interludes Below

The SPX recently fell below its rising 1-year moving average after being above it for an extended period. This study examines instances where the SPX regained its position above this trend indicator following brief periods below it.

In rope climbing, the term regain refers to the process of recovering or re-establishing your position on the rope after losing ground—usually due to slipping, a loss of grip, or a dip in momentum. It’s about getting back into a more stable or advantageous position to continue progressing efficiently.

The historical return table below highlights a clear distinction in market behavior before and after 1975. Regains from 1900 to 1975 did not consistently provide market stabilization. In contrast, post-1975, regains generally signal renewed strength. The October 2023 event stands out as a clear example of this pattern.